
Demscore Working Paper Series
Working Paper 1:2025
Publications Using Demscore Data
- Angiolillo, F., Lundstedt, M., Nord, M., & Lindberg, S. I. (2024). State of the world 2023: democracy winning and losing at the ballot. Democratization: 1–25.
https://doi.org/10.1080/13510347.2024.2341435 - Boese-Schlosser, V., Eberhardt, M. (2024). Democracy Doesn't Always Happen Over Night: Regime Change in Stages and Economic Growth. The Review of Economics and Statistics. 2024. https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01461
- Buckley N., Marquardt K. L., Reuter, O.J., Tertytchnaya, K. (2024). Endogenous Popularity: How Perceptions of Support Affect the Popularity of Authoritarian Regimes. American Political Science Review. 118(2):1046-1052. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055423000618 (Previous V-Dem Working Paper 132).
- Edgell A. B., Lachapelle J., Maerz S. F. (2024) Achieving Transparency, Traceability, and Readability with Human-Coded Data. PS: Political Science & Politics.
https://doi.org/10.1017/S1049096524000714 (Previous V-Dem Working Paper 145). - del Río, A., Knutsen, C. H., & Lutscher, P. M. (2024). Education Policies and Systems Across Modern History: A Global Dataset. Comparative Political Studies. 0(0).
https://doi.org/10.1177/00104140241252075 (Previous V-Dem Working Paper 138). - Gervasoni, C. (2024). Economic dependence on the state and pro-authority attitudes: evidence from 18 Latin-American countries. Acta Politica. 59:98–123. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41269-022-00282-3
- Kalemaj, I., Lleshi, S. (2024). Assessing Success Through Party Label Durability: A Comparative Study of the Democratic Party of Albania and the Homeland Union of Lithuania. Journal of Liberty and International Affairs. 10(1):212-32. https://doi.org/10.47305/JLIA24101216k
- Kim, W., Bernhard, M. and Hicken, A. (2024). Party system institutionalization and the durability of competitive authoritarian regimes. European Journal of Political Research. https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6765.12655 (Previous V-Dem Working Paper 129).
- Knutsen C.H. (2024) Democracy and Dictatorship. Fagbokförlaget. https://fagbokforlaget.no/products/9788245051674-democracy-and-dictatorship
- Knutsen, C.H., & Kolvani, P. (2024). Fighting the Disease or Manipulating the Data? Democracy, State Capacity, and the COVID-19 Pandemic. World Politics. 76(3), 543-593. https://dx.doi.org/10.1353/wp.2024.a933071 (Previous V-Dem Working Paper 127).
- Knutsen C.H., Marquardt K.L., Seim, B., Coppedge, M., Edgell, A., Medzihorsky, J., Pemstein, D., Teorell, J., Gerring, J., and Lindberg, S.I. (2024). Conceptual and Measurement Issues in Assessing Democratic Backsliding. PS: Political Science & Politics. 1(16).
https://doi.org/10.1017/S104909652300077X (Previous V-Dem Working Paper 140). - Knutsen, C.H., Morgenbesser, L., Wig, T. (2024). On the move: Autocratic leaders, security, and capital relocations. Political Geography. 113: 103–154. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2024.103154
- Lleshi, S., Kalemaj, I. (2024). Party Organisation, Youth Wings and Political Representation in Contemporary Albania. Europe-Asia Studies. 76(10): 1551-1573. https://doi.org/10.1080/09668136.2024.2424416
- Marquardt, K. L., Pemstein, D., Sanhueza Petrarca, C., Seim, B., Wilson, S. L., Bernhard, M., Coppedge, M., & Lindberg, S.I. (2024). Experts, coders and crowds: An analysis of substitutability. International Political Science Review. 0(0).
https://doi.org/10.1177/01925121241293459 (Previous V-Dem Working Paper 53) - Mechkova, V., Pemstein, D., Seim, B., & Wilson, S.L. (2024). Measuring online political activity: introducing the digital society project dataset. Journal of Information Technology & Politics:1–17. https://doi.org/10.1080/19331681.2024.2350495
- Sato, Y., & Wiebrecht, F. (2024). Disinformation and Regime Survival. Political Research Quarterly. 0(0). https://doi.org/10.1177/10659129241252811 (Previous V-Dem Working Paper 144).
- Wiebrecht, F. (2024). Corruption, Elite Contestation, and Parliaments: Why Do Legislatures Become Stronger in Authoritarian Regimes? Political Research Quarterly. 77(1): 255-269. https://doi.org/10.1177/10659129231205296
- Wiesner, K., Bien, S., and Wilson M.C. (2024). The principal components of electoral regimes: separating autocracies from pseudo-democracies. R. Soc. Open Sci. 11240262 http://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.240262
- Williamson, M., Akor, C., & Edgell, A. B. (2024). Democracy in Trouble: Democratic Resilience and Breakdown from 1900 to 2022. Cambridge University Press.
- Wilson, M.C., Andersen, D. (2024). Economic growth, largest-party vote shares, and electoral authoritarianism. Electoral Studies. 92:102–879. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102879
- Alexander, Amy, Nicholas Charron, and Gefjon Off. For every action a reaction? The polarizing effects of women's rights and refugee immigration: A survey experiment in 27 EU member states. European Journal of Political Research (2024).
- Bauhr, Monika, and Nicholas Charron. Europe around the corner? How border proximity and quality of government explains European identity. European Union Politics 25.2 (2024): 376-395.
- Bauhr, Monika, Nicholas Charron, and Lena Wängnerud. What candidate will fight corruption? Gender and anti-corruption stereotypes across European countries. European Political Science Review (2024): 1-20.
- Bauhr, Monika, Nicholas Charron, and Lena Wängnerud. Will Women’s Representation Reduce Bribery? Trends in Corruption and Public Service Delivery Across European Regions. Political Behavior (2024): 1-24.
- Berman, Alexander, Karl de Fine Licht, and Vanja Carlsson. Trustworthy AI in the public sector: An empirical analysis of a Swedish labor market decision-support system. Technology in Society 76 (2024): 102–471.
- Dalén, Pär. The Share of Carbon Emissions by the Non-Rich and Support for Higher Environmental Taxes in Cross-National and Longitudinal Perspective. International Journal of Sociology 54.5-6 (2024): 510-529.
- Davidovic, Dragana. Quality of government and public support for taxation for climate change mitigation: evidence from 135 European regions. European Political Science Review (2024): 1-26.
- Kubbe, Ina, Claudia Baez-Camargo, and Cheyanne Scharbatke-Church. Corruption and Social Norms: A New Arrow in the Quiver. Annual Review of Political Science 27 (2024).
- Lundgren, Magnus, Emma Janson, and Martin Lundqvist. Introducing the Proscription of Armed Actors Dataset. Journal of Peace Research (2024): 00223433241255001.
- Mechkova, Valeriya, and Amanda B. Edgell. Substantive representation, women’s health, and regime type. Comparative Political Studies 57.14 (2024): 2449-2481.
- Wittberg, Emanuel, Gissur Ó. Erlingsson, and Karl Wennberg. Does local government corruption inhibit entrepreneurship?. Small Business Economics 62.2 (2024): 775-806.
- Bramsen, I., & Svensson, I. (2024). Peace Talks in the Russia-Ukraine War: When, Who, and How?International Negotiation, 1(aop), 1–26. https://doi.org/10.1163/15718069-bja10106
- Brosché, J., & Sundberg, R. (2024). What They Are Fighting For – Introducing the UCDP Conflict Issues Dataset. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 68(10), 2128–2157. https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027231218633
- Croicu, M. (2024). Deep Active Learning for Data Mining from Conflict Text Corpora. Preprint. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2402.01577
- Croicu, M., & von der Maase, S. P. (2024). From Newswire to Nexus: Using text-based actor embeddings and transformer networks to forecast conflict dynamics. Preprint. https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-544710
- Davies, S., Engström, G., Pettersson, T., & Öberg, M. (2024). Organized violence 1989–2023, and the prevalence of organized crime groups. Journal of Peace Research, 61(4), 673–693. https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433241262912
- Deglow, A., & Fjelde, H. (n.d.). Militarized elections and citizens’ support for democratic rights: Evidence from India. Democratization, 0(0), 1–23. https://doi.org/10.1080/13510347.2024.2421831
- Deglow, A., & Fjelde, H. (2024). Violent Elections and Citizens’ Support for Democratic Constraints on the Executive: Evidence From Nigeria. Comparative Political Studies, 57(4), 613–643. https://doi.org/10.1177/00104140231178730
- Döring, S., & Mustasilta, K. (2024). Spatial patterns of communal violence in sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of Peace Research, 61(5), 858–873. https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433231168187
- Eskildsen, L. S., & Bjørnskov, C. (n.d.). Do Blasphemy Restrictions Restrict Terrorism? Terrorism and Political Violence, 0(0), 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1080/09546553.2024.2378446
- Fjelde, H., & Olafsdottir, G. (2024). Viewing Violence through a Partisan Lens: How Electoral Violence Shapes Citizens’ Support for Democracy. Government and Opposition, 1–22. https://doi.org/10.1017/gov.2024.17
- Hegele, L. (2024). Rebel Capital: How rebel leaders use social networks to shape organizations and war (Doctoral dissertation, Department of Political Science, Stockholm University).
- Hegre, H., Vesco, P., Colaresi, M., Vestby, J., Timlick, A., Kazmi, N. S., ... & Walterskirchen, J. (2024). The 2023/24 VIEWS Prediction Challenge: Predicting the Number of Fatalities in Armed Conflict, with Uncertainty. arXiv preprint arXiv:2407.11045.
- Hellmüller, S., Tan, X.-Y. R., & Bara, C. (2024). What is in a Mandate? Introducing the UN Peace Mission Mandates Dataset. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 68(1), 166–192. https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027231159830
- Kreft, A.-K., & Agerberg, M. (2024). Imperfect Victims? Civilian Men, Vulnerability, and Policy Preferences. American Political Science Review, 118(1), 274–290. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055423000345
- Kreutz, J. (2024). Conflict prevention in post-conflict settings. In Research Handbook on Conflict Prevention (pp. 324–340). Edward Elgar Publishing. https://www.elgaronline.com/edcollchap/book/9781803920849/book-part-9781803920849-25.xml
- Kreutz, J., & Cárdenas, M. L. (n.d.). The women and men that make peace: Introducing the Mediating Individuals (M-IND) dataset. Journal of Peace Research, 62(1), 182–192. https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433231211761
- Lilja, J., Ferrari, G., Alvarado, J., Fabich, L.-A., Kyzy, G. A., Kenny, L., & Hossain, M. (2024). Territorial control by non-state armed groups and gendered access to healthcare in conflict using a new complex adaptive systems framework. Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, 11(1), 1–18. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-024-03345-2
- Lindberg Bromley, S., & von Uexkull, N. (2024). UN peacekeeping presence and local food security outcomes. Conflict Management and Peace Science, 07388942241237727. https://doi.org/10.1177/07388942241237727
- Lundgren, M., Janson, E., & Lundqvist, M. (2024). Introducing the Proscription of Armed Actors Dataset. Journal of Peace Research, 00223433241255001. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343324125500
- Lynam, T., Zapata, M., Hegre, H., Bell, C., & Besaw, C. (2024). Early Warning and Predictive Analytic Systems in Conflict Contexts: Insights from the Field. Civil Wars, 26(3), 401-429. https://doi.org/10.1080/13698249.2023.2185377
- Palihapitiya, M., Khan, S., Ahmed, F., Shenouda, B., & Nelson, E. (2024). Addressing Critical Gaps in Data Collection and Analysis in Atrocities Prevention Early Warning Systems. Journal of Peacebuilding & Development, 0(0). https://doi.org/10.1177/15423166241293353
- Petersson, E. (2024). Airpower and territorial control: Unpacking the NATO intervention in Libya. Conflict Management and Peace Science, 41(3), 289–312. https://doi.org/10.1177/07388942231173613
- Petrova, K., & Rosvold, E. L. (2024). Mitigating the legacy of violence: Can flood relief improve people’s trust in government in conflict-affected areas? Evidence from Pakistan. World Development, 173, 106372. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2023.106372
- Randahl, D., & Vegelius, J. (2024). Forecasting Densities of Fatalities from State-based Conflicts using Observed Markov Models. arXiv preprint arXiv:2410.12374.
- Randahl, D., & Vegelius, J. (2024). Inference with Extremes: Accounting for Extreme Values in Count Regression Models. International Studies Quarterly, 68(4), sqae137. https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqae137
- Randahl, D., Vegelius, J. Forecasting Densities of Fatalities from State-based Conflicts using Observed Markov Models. Preprint. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2410.12374
- Randahl, D., Williams, J. P., & Hegre, H. (2024). Bin-Conditional Conformal Prediction of Fatalities from Armed Conflict. arXiv preprint arXiv:2410.14507.
- Rist, L., Norström, A., & Queiroz, C. (2024). Biodiversity, peace and conflict: Understanding the connections. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 68, 101431. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2024.101431
- Rød, E. G., Gåsste, T., & Hegre, H. (2024). A review and comparison of conflict early warning systems.International Journal of Forecasting, 40(1), 96–112. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2023.01.001
- Svallfors, S. (2024). Milestone Moments: Community Violence and Women’s Life-Course Transitions in Colombia, the Dominican Republic, and Guatemala. Population and Development Review, 50(3), 791–824. https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12628
- Svallfors, S., Båge, K., Ekström, A. M., Elimian, K., Gayawan, E., Litorp, H., & Kågesten, A. (2024). Armed conflict, insecurity, and attitudes toward women’s and girls’ reproductive autonomy in Nigeria. Social Science & Medicine, 348, 116777. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2024.116777
- Svensson, I., Nilsson, D., & Gåsste, T. (n.d.). No End in Sight? Trajectories of War Terminations in Islamist Armed Conflicts. Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 0(0), 1–20. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2024.2398691
- van Baalen, S. (2024). Keeping communal peace in the shadow of civil war: A natural experiment from Côte d’Ivoire. World Development, 176, 106512. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2023.106512
- Vesco, P., Baliki, G., Brück, T., Döring, S., Eriksson, A., Fjelde, H., Guha-Sapir, D., Hall, J., Knutsen, C. H., Leis, M. R., Mueller, H., Rauh, C., Rudolfsen, I., Swain, A., Timlick, A., Vassiliou, P. T. B., von Schreeb, J., von Uexkull, N., & Hegre, H. (n.d.). The impacts of armed conflict on human development: A review of the literature. World Development, 187, 106806. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106806
- Vesco, P. Randahl, D., Hegre, H., Högbladh, S., Yilmaz, M.C. (2024) The underreported death toll of wars: a probabilistic reassessment from a structured expert elicitation. Preprint. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2409.08779
- von Uexkull, N., Rød, E. G., & Svensson, I. (2024). Fueling protest? Climate change mitigation, fuel prices and protest onset. World Development, 177, 106536. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106536
- Walterskirchen, J., & Häffner, S. (2024). Text as Data for Crisis-Early Warning: A Comparative Assessment of NLP Methods for Conflict Prediction. https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/4mbzn
- Wennström, P. (2024). Cattle, conflict, and climate variability: Explaining pastoralist conflict intensity in the Karamoja region of Uganda. Regional Environmental Change, 24(2), 54. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-024-02210-x
- Baghirzade, N. (2024). Global Challenges on the Welfare States: An Institutional Analysis (Doctoral dissertation, Debreceni Egyetem (Hungary)).
- Baranowska-Rataj, A., Högberg, B., & Bernardi, L. (2024). Parental unemployment and adolescents’ subjective wellbeing—the moderating role of educational policies. European Sociological Review, 40(2), 276-292. https://doi.org/10.1093/esr/jcad038
- Brady, D. (2024). The Welfare State and Economic Inequality. In M.Gangl, L. Platt, J. Polavieja, and H. Van de Wershoft (Eds.), The Oxford Handbook of Social Stratification. Oxford University Press. https://bradydave.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/brady_welfarestate_ohss_2024.pdf
- Czarnecki, K., & Litwiński, M. (2024). Cross-country relationships between student funding policies and student labour. Higher Education Policy, 37(2), 366-391. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/s41307-023-00308-1
- Durocher, D. (2024). Targeted transfers, a left-wing policy? The impact of left-wing governments and corporatism on transfers to low-income families (1982–2019). Journal of European Social Policy, 34(4), 389-403. https://doi.org/10.1177/09589287241240317
- Fasang, A. E., Andrade, S. B., Bedük, S., Buyukkececi, Z., & Karhula, A. (2024). Lives in welfare states: Life courses, earnings accumulation, and relative living standards in five European countries. American Journal of Sociology, 130(2), 384-438. http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/730851
- Karmann, A. (2024). A Gendered Double Movement? Income Security and Family Policy Dynamics Over Three Decades. Femina Politica–Zeitschrift für feministische Politikwissenschaf, 33(2), 23-43. http://dx.doi.org/10.3224/feminapolitica.v33i2.03
- Lindemann K. (2024), Family structure and policy contexts: Implications for tertiary education attainment in 25 European countries. European Sociological Review. https://doi.org/10.1093/esr/jcae030
- Son, K. (2024). Gender cleavage and political parties in 19 welfare states, 1900–1975. Journal of European Public Policy, 1-26. https://doi.org/10.1080/13501763.2024.2439562
- Römer, F., Henninger, J., & Harris, E. (2024). Social protection for mobile populations? A global perspective on immigrant social rights. Social Policy & Administration, 58(1), 155-174.
- Peters, M. E., Boräng, F., Kalm, S., Lindvall, J., & Shin, A. J. (2024). Historical Immigration Policies: Trends and Lessons. International Studies Quarterly, 68(3), sqae084.
- Ahlén, A. (2024). The Effects of Admission Policies on Rates of Family Migration in European States, 2008–2019. Nordic Journal of Migration Research, 14(3), 1-23.
- Gschwind, L., Wejryd, J., Hultin Rosenberg, J., Ahlén, A., & Borevi, K. (2024). Uncovering Attitudes to Family Migration—A Conjoint Survey Experiment with a Dyadic Approach. International Migration Review, 01979183241293391.
- Stahl, G.K., Akkan, E., Reiche, B.S. et al. Linking institutional context to the community and career embeddedness of skilled migrants: The role of destination- and origin-country identifications. J Int Bus Stud 55, 703–722 (2024). https://doi-org.ezproxy.its.uu.se/10.1057/s41267-024-00683-w
- Rhoads, E. L., & Das, R. (2024). The Specter of Potential Foreigners: Revisiting the Postcolonial Citizenship Regimes of Myanmar and India. Critical Asian Studies, 56(2), 155-183.
- Bäck, H., Bergman, M. E., & Müller, W. C. (2024). Coalition bargaining time and governments’ policy‐making productivity. European Journal of Political Research, 63(4): 1263-1285. https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6765.12651
- Bäck, H., Hellström, J., Lindvall, J., & Teorell, J. (2024). Pre-electoral coalitions, familiarity, and delays in government formation. West European Politics, 47(1), 88-112. https://doi.org/10.1080/01402382.2023.2200328
- Bäck, H., & Teorell, J. (2024). Statsministeromröstning och regeringsbildning. In T. Möller (Ed.), En författning i tiden. Regeringsformen under 50 år (pp. 143-179). Medströms Bokförlag. https://www.riksdagen.se/globalassets/03.-dokument-och-lagar/bestall-och-ladda-ner/ovriga-trycksaker/en-forfattning-i-tiden-regeringsformen-under-50-ar.pdf
- Bergman, T., Ilonszki, G., & Hellström, J. (eds.). (2024). Coalition Politics in Central Eastern Europe: Governing in Times of Crisis. Abingdon: Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003328483
- Bergman, T., Ilonszki, G., & Hellström, J. (2024). ‘Coalitions in Times of Crisis’ in Bergman, T., Ilonszki, G., & Hellström, J. (eds.). Coalition Politics in Central Eastern Europe: Governing in Times of Crisis. Abingdon: Routledge, 1-17. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003328483-1
- Bergman, T., Ilonszki, G., & Hellström, J. (2024). ‘New Patterns of Coalition Politics in Central and Eastern Europe?’ in Bergman, T., Ilonszki, G., & Hellström, J. (eds.). Coalition Politics in Central Eastern Europe: Governing in Times of Crisis. Abingdon: Routledge, 288-320.https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003328483-13
- Bergman, T., & Lindahl, J. (2024). Defining caretaker governments. In Dumond, P., Grofman, B., Bergman, T., & Louwerse, T. (eds.), New developments in the study of coalition governments. Cham: Springer, 73–88. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-69347-2_4
- Dumond, P., Grofman, B., Bergman, T., & Louwerse, T. (eds.). (2024), New developments in the study of coalition governments. Cham: Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-69347-2
- Dumond, P., Grofman, B., Bergman, T., & Louwerse, T. (2024). Introduction: Old puzzles, conceptual vagueness and new developments in the study of coalition governments. In Dumond, P., Grofman, B., Bergman, T., & Louwerse, T. (Eds.), New developments in the study of coalition governments. Cham: Springer, 1–16. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-69347-2_1
- Fumarola, A. & Lindahl J. (2024). ‘Concepts and Measurements’ in Bergman, T., Ilonszki, G., & Hellström, J. (eds.). Coalition Politics in Central Eastern Europe: Governing in Times of Crisis. Abingdon: Routledge, 18-43. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003328483-13
- Hellström, J. (2024). Government formation and political institutions: some robust findings. In Dumond, P., Grofman, B., Bergman, T., & Louwerse, T. (eds.), New developments in the study of coalition governments(pp. 89–109). Cham: Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-69347-2_5
- Lindahl, J. (2024). Now You See Me, Now You Don’t: Anticipatory Coalitional Strategies in European Representative Democracies. Government and Opposition, 59(2), 504-525.https://doi.org/10.1017/gov.2022.53
- Müller, W. C., Bäck, H., & Hellström, J. (2024). Coalition dynamics: advances in the study of the coalition life cycle. West European Politics, 47(1), 1-30. https://doi.org/10.1080/01402382.2023.2249316
- So, F. (2024). Serious Conflicts with Benign Outcomes? The Electoral Consequences of Conflictual Cabinet Terminations. American Political Science Review, 118(3), 1449-1463.https://doi.org/10.1017/S000305542300093X
- Thürk, M., & Klüver, H. (2024). Hitting the sweet spot? The electoral consequences of supporting minority governments. Comparative Political Studies. 1–29. https://doi.org/10.1177/00104140241271210
- Thürk, M., & Krauss, S. (2024). The formalisation of minority governments. West European Politics, 47(1), 113-141. https://doi.org/10.1080/01402382.2022.2157994
- Bäck, Hanna, Flores, Alejandro Quiros & Jan Teorell. The Selection and Tenure of Foreign Ministers Around the World. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2024.
- Andersson, P. F., & Teorell, J. (2024). The Double-Edged Sword: How State Capacity Prolongs Autocratic Tenure but Hastens Democratization. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 0(0). https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027241293395